BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, expects consumer spending to continue to grow this year, driven by strong economic growth.
“We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in the Philippines, with an acceleration in real household spending growth — from 5.0% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025,” BMI said in a recent report. โIn real terms, household spending is projected to grow to PHP13.2 trillion this year,โ it added.
BMI said its forecast is in line with expectations that the Philippine economy will grow by 6.3% this year, noting that easing inflation will boost household spending this year.
“A deteriorating external demand will likely be a drag on the Philippinesโ GDP (gross domestic product). However, the private final consumption expenditure will be positive, with a 5.3% expected growth, an acceleration from the 5.0% growth seen in 2024,” it added.
BMI said โeasing inflationary pressures will provide relief to real household incomes and enable growth in spending.” It expects inflation to settle at 3.3% this year, which is still within the government’s 2% to 4% target.
The Fitch Solutions unit said risks to the consumer spending outlook include prolonged and elevated inflation, lower remittances and weakening of the domestic economy.
“These risk factors will adversely affect household purchasing power, while geo-political tensions have also emerged as a risk that is likely to impact inflation and interest rates,” it pointed out.
BMI added that a high level of household debt also remains a risk to its consumer outlook.
